Technology is central to human existence and is of great importance to Australia both now and in the future.
Technology and Australia’s Future examines how technology has changed in the past, how it will continue to change in the future and what one can consequently say about the impacts of new technologies on Australia.
The report aims to provide government and industry with guidance that will endure over the long term; it does not only look at the technologies of today or those categorised as ‘emerging’ technologies. Technology and Australia’s Future focus on how technology changes, the nature of its impacts, how it can be predicted and the types of interventions that help deal with the complexity and uncertainty inherent in technological change.
“All new technologies disrupt the current way of doing things; this brings both benefits and disadvantages. The challenge is to leverage and share as many of the rewards while limiting any damage.”
Professor Robert C Williamson /
The project (Technology and Australia’s Future: New technologies and their role in Australia’s security, cultural, democratic, social and economic systems) aimed to understand the role of new technologies in Australia’s social, cultural, democratic, security and economic systems. The expert working group and project team were asked to answer the following
questions:
Q1 What are the key science and technology developments currently affecting Australia’s social, cultural, democratic, security and economic systems?
Q2 To what extent can new developments in science and technology, and their economic and social impact, be anticipated?
- What are the key factors affecting such anticipation? What are reliable time horizons for prediction and what factors affect that horizon? How should technological uncertainty and risk be accessed and communicated?
- How should the process of policy development and government policy incorporate technological uncertainty and risk assessment?
- What are the time scales that government policy needs to operate on in order to effectively influence adoption and use?
Q3 What are the potential impacts of new and emerging technologies on Australia’s social, cultural, democratic, security and economic systems?
Q4 What are the key determinants (in Australia now, and in the foreseeable future) of industry’s uptake of new technologies and to what extent are these capable of influence by government policy?
Q5 What are the opportunities, barriers and determining factors for new or different uses of modern information and communication technologies (ICT) broadly across Australia’s social, cultural, democratic, security and economic systems?
Q6 How should all these questions be considered by Government in an ongoing fashion in the future?
We have given answers to these questions below but have explored a range of issues in the main report inspired by and going beyond the questions. Our overall aim has been to synthesise current knowledge regarding new technologies, and especially to provide guidance regarding how governments can and should respond.
Technological change is the major driver of long-term economic growth. In an environment of uncertainty, ongoing investment in the skills and organisational capacities that allow effective technology development, evaluation, adoption and adaptation will help solve social, economic and environmental challenges, leading to a prosperous and healthy future.
Technology and humanity shape each other. To solve Australia’s social challenges, government policies and programs should understand the interrelationships between technology and humanity – solutions to complex problems will never be solely technological.
The way technology is categorised affects how it is imagined, evaluated, funded, adopted and used. Encouraging crossover between diverse areas and looking beyond narrow categories, sectors, and disciplines for inspiration will increase opportunities for technological innovation in Australia.
Public policy is often based on assumptions of stability, predictability, and linear progress. Policies which take into account the dynamic and multidimensional nature of technology will encourage adoption rather than protecting and favouring the status quo, allowing Australians to make better decisions to prepare for, and capture benefit from, technological change. Australia’s technological future is open, and not pre-determined.
Predicting future technology and its impact with any accuracy is extremely difficult. Recognising that general patterns of technological change will persist can help governments, businesses and communities facilitate and adapt to change. Attention should be focused upon problems that need to be solved and on helping innovators find solutions.
Technologies for data, especially data analytics, will play a substantial role in solving most social problems, and will augment and transform most existing technologies. In order to maximise the benefit of this technology, Australia needs to ensure it has the advanced skills and capabilities to create and use this technology.
The value of a technology always depends upon context and use. Judging technologies as intrinsically beneficial or detrimental limits the opportunities to make the best use of them. To improve the design, assessment and effectiveness of technology or any technological intervention, consider the technology in its historical, cultural, geographical, political and social contexts.
The adoption of any new technology in Australia will affect people differently. Costs and benefits of a technology should take into account the different impacts a technology will have on different sections of society.
Meanings associated with technology are deeply tied to values, beliefs, experiences and cultural setting, and as a result vary enormously. The meanings people ascribe to a technology substantially influence its adoption and use and therefore cannot be ignored in any technological intervention.
Attitudes towards technology do not always reflect behaviour. Effective government policy to encourage new technologies should reflect the different reasons people have for engaging with technology.
Adaptability and creativity are key skills in creating, assimilating and adopting new technology. The adoption of new
technology and its effective use depends on people with diverse skills playing a variety of roles. Enhancing technological literacy, including fostering skills appropriate to engaging with technology in all levels of education, can enhance
Australia’s ability to adopt and adapt new technologies. Promoting technology as a creative enterprise may serve to inspire a greater engagement with technology. Enhancing the tinkering aspect of STEM education at all levels (K–12, and tertiary) could create a culture that embraces technological change.Technology evaluation is of central importance to technology adoption. The costs of a technology are complex to determine, context-dependent, variable, and contested. Governments can facilitate better technology evaluation by adopting international best practice and by minimising the role vested interests play in technology evaluation.
Cognitive biases play a major role in the evaluation of technologies, which in turn is a major determinant of adoption
and use. The impacts of these biases can be substantially mitigated by adopting methods designed to counter them, including independent assessors, and readily available empirical data.The difficulty of appropriating economic returns from early stage technology research and development means that substantial ongoing government investment in research is warranted. Increased investment in high quality scientific and technological research will lead to greater commercial and economic outcomes for Australia. Such research should be focused upon general purpose technologies, rather than particular technology winners. Having research institutions that are more willing to share their IP will create a more effective innovation system.
Government policy and legislation should focus on the effects due to the use of new technology, or the effects arising from new uses of technology, rather than on the technology itself in order to minimise regulatory impediments.
Interoperability allows the more rapid adoption of new technologies. Interoperability is facilitated by standards and gateway and platform technologies. Diffusion of technology in Australia can be aided by simple standards which lead to easier parts assembly. Adopting global standards will facilitate integration of a technology into global supply-chains.
Accepting that failure can occur in any attempt to do something new and removing its stigma will facilitate and accelerate technology development and adoption. Training managers in business and government to acknowledge uncertainty, take risks, and deal constructively with failure will improve Australia’s entrepreneurial and innovative culture.
- The uncertainty and unpredictability inherent in the development and adoption of technology require a considered experimental approach. The adoption of the scientific method of ‘test-learn-adapt’ can improve Australia’s ability to develop, adapt and embrace new technologies.
Contributing reports
- Bottling sunlight - using energy storage technology as a lens to view the factors affecting technological change in the electricity supply industry, Dana Sanchez, November 2014.pdf
- Collective technologies- autonomous vehicles, Dana Sanchez, 24 February 2015.pdf
- Performance based research funding – an overly simplistic technological intervention, Robert C. Williamson, 31 May 2015.pdf
- Tinkering With Technology- Examining past practices and imagined futures, Kat Jungnickel.pdf
- Technology and work, Michelle Nic Raghnaill, Robert C. Williamson, 29 July 2014.pdf
- Technologies for Data, Kirsty Douglas, April 2015.pdf
- Printing the future_ An analysis of the hype and hope of rapid prototyping technology, Kat Jungnickel.pdf
- Locked into the car- How a vision of unfettered transport freedom transformed personal mobility and reshaped the world, Michelle Nic Raghnaill, 25 August 2014.pdf
- Genetically modified crops - how attitudes to new technology influence adoption, Dana Sanchez, 31 March 2015.pdf
- Future Technology Overview, Rob Evans, 3 September 2014.pdf
- From Frankenstein to the Roomba - The changing nature and socio-cultural meanings of robots and automation, Kat Jungnickel.pdf
- Evolution of Education – How societal readiness and technological improvement is improving online higher education access and quality worldwide, Michelle Nic Raghnaill, 30 September 2014.pdf
- Digital computing, modelling and simulation, Kirsty Douglas, 29 April 2015.pdf
ACOLA, for its established ability to deliver interdisciplinary evidence-based research that draws on specialist expertise from Australia’s Learned Academies, convenes the SAF05 Expert Working Group (EWG) to guide the development of a targeted study that draws input from several disciplines to create a well-considered, balanced and peer-reviewed report.
The role of the EWG is to provide strategic oversight and provide expert input, analysis and provocative thinking.
Professor Genevieve Bell
AO FTSE FAHA
Dr Michael Keating
FASSA
Dr Stephen King
FASSA
Dr John O'Callaghan
FTSEProject services provided by the Australian Academy of Science on behalf of ACOLA